It’s been a while since I’ve blogged about triathlon.  After the full on beating I took in Canada I found myself in an odd spot.  Part of me wanted to be done with it all.  Another part of me wanted some redemption.  As usual the latter won out.  Two weeks from now I will be racing in the Ironman North American Championship (aka Ironman Texas) in The Woodlands.

This was supposed to be my 2018 race but it sold out before I could sign up.  This year I signed up early (and yes it eventually sold out again).  This course plays much more to my strengths than Canada did.  Instead of close to 9k ft of elevation gain on the bike I’m now looking at just over 1k.  The run will be pretty much flat as well.

My last two race results (Ironman Canada 2018 and Tri Ft Worth 2017) have been what I would classify as sub-par.  Somewhere between the two I managed to tear a meniscus and put on a good +15 lbs.  The good news is that the meniscus seems to be 100%.  I’ve had zero training issues this round.  On the other hand the weight has been really, really slow to come off.  Just over the past week or two have I started to shed some of it.  I’m hoping to drop a few final pounds these last weeks and be closer to race weight come the big day.

Here’s how I’m hoping to see the day play out.

SWIM (Goal: 1:30)

The swim at this race will take place in Lake Woodlands.  It’s not exactly known for crystal clear water.  I think the average visibility is maybe a foot or two.  But that’s pretty typical in Texas.  It’s likely that when I step into the water that morning it will be my first time in open water this year.  As always, if I can keep from panicking in the open water I should have a decent day.  If not it could be ugly.  If it’s not a wetsuit legal swim it could get really ugly.  I’m really hoping a few things roll my way.

BIKE (Goal 5:45)

Per Best Bike Split a 5:40 should be doable.  This is slower than what I rode in Florida a few years ago.  My power is about the same as then.  However, in Florida my heart rate got up a bit higher than I wanted on the bike and I was never able to get it back down on the run.  I’m planning to drop my power by a simple 5W in hopes that my heart rate stays lower this time.  Ultimately wind and humidity (which I have zero control over) will play a huge part.  Again I’m hoping for favorable conditions as this course has the potential to be really fast.

RUN (Goal 4:45)

My run training this year has been slower than I’m used to.  Lots of 10:30 paces.  With my weight being up that’s just part of the game.  I’m a tad nervous about how I’ll feel deep into the run due to the fact that my longest continuous run in training has been 14 miles.  But that’s what the plan called for.  If I can keep my heart rate down on the bike and my legs wind up holding out I think hitting my run goal is doable.

OVERALL

If you’re doing the math that puts me at exactly 12 hours plus transitions.  My goal since starting this sport has been to crack 12 hours.  When I look at this race my overall prediction is that I’m going to come up a tad short.  If the stars align it could be possible but everything will have to go off flawlessly (weather included).  Given my current fitness and my training this year I honestly expect closer to a 13 hour finish.

So there it is in a nutshell.  Lots of potential this time around.  Two more weeks and we’ll all know how this plays out.